Consisting early and late expansions, peaks, recessions and troughs, business cycles which typically last 1 – 12 years are a recurrent feature in an enterprise-based economy.
With almost a decade passed since the end of the last recession in June 2009, the current business cycle has recorded the second longest expansion in history according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
Amid US-China trade tensions and Fed rate hikes, with economic growth easing to 3.4% in 2018’Q3 from 4.2% recorded in 2018’Q2, further brakes on the economy in late 2018 from stock market volatility and partial government shutdown could push the economy to the brink of a recession.
In a time when the Federal Reserve has leaned towards data to drive its future policy direction, this article analyses some of the widely-used leading economic indicators in an attempt to forecast an imminent danger of a recession to the US economy.
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